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Taking In The Big Picture

The economy - down, up, down, down, down. You know. To make sense of these things, I turn to my college buddy Barry Ritholtz, whose The Big Picture blog was anticipating trouble in the financial markets more than an year ago. This morning, he posts a lengthy entry spelling out where we are:

"In recent years, banks ran into three kinds of trouble: They made loans to people who failed to repay them; they did not keep adequate capital on reserve; they compounded their problems by borrowing money from each other to buy back all of those loans after they had been repackaged as fancy securities...

All these complex financial maneuvers have left the institutions themselves shell shocked. They no longer know who to trust. When Banks cannot tell if the other bank across the street has enough money to survive through tomorrow, they cease credit operations. As long as this condition exists, banks will be reluctant to lend money to anyone but the strongest financial institutions, who of course, do not need it.

Hence, a credit freeze."

On the plus side, oil's way down, and Ritholtz assures, "I would imagine we are closer to the bottom than to the top."


UPDATE: More optimism from The Big Picture: 10 Bullish Charts, Signals, Indicators. Though Ritholtz does warn, "the bottoming process can take several months to several quarters to complete."

Two more interesting comparison charts:

This bear market vs. the dot-com bust; and

John McCain's daily Gallup tracking polls vs. the S&P 500.


Posted by Joe Caponi at 11:13 AM, October 10, 2008

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