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Apple Watchers Predict Huge 'Jobs-less' Recovery In Q3

By Damon Poeter, CRN July 20, 2009
Wall Street analysts and amateur market watchers were bullish on Apple a day in advance of the company's third-quarter earnings report, guessing that Apple will easily beat its own guidance on Tuesday and possibly have a record quarter for Mac sales to hang its hat on.

If Apple watchers' most optimistic predictions are realized, the Cupertino, Calif.-based company will have accomplished what few consumer PC makers have been able to do during the ongoing economic downturn, and done it without their iconic CEO Steve Jobs at the helm for most of the company's June quarter.

Tallying up the latest PC shipment numbers from market researcher NPD, one analyst has revised earlier published projections and now expects Apple to report that Mac shipments rose 16 percent year-over-year to about 2.6 million units sold in the third quarter. That would be an Apple record for the June period and could flirt with Apple's record quarter for Mac sales -- last year, the company also sold 2.6 million Macs in its fiscal fourth quarter ending in September.

One of two questions that linger for Apple is how its earnings will be affected by its third-quarter price cuts for some MacBook Pro notebooks. Could more sales of Macs at lower margins result in an earnings wash? We'll find out Tuesday, but some Apple watchers seem to think that marked-up Apple iPhone prices will make up for any Mac-driven hit to gross margins and could push Apple's margins to a couple points over the company's own guidance of 33 percent.

The second question? It won't impact anything Apple already did in its June quarter, but inquiring minds want to know if the recently returned Jobs will make an appearance on Tuesday's call with analysts following his six-month leave of absence that culminated in a liver transplant.


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