Heading Into 2004, Merger and Acquistion Speculation Is All The Rage

Right now the IT industry looks like a conglomeration of city states surrounded by a few large nations such as IBM and Microsoft. For many of these entities to survive in 2004 and beyond, they are going to have to get bigger and expand the overall footprint of their organizations, a conclusion that is leading to rampant speculation about the unions we'll see in the months ahead. Some of the most talked-about potential combinations include the following:

\

MICHAEL VIZARD

Can be reached at (516) 562-7477 or via e-mail at [email protected].

• Almost everyone is wondering about the viability of Sun Microsystems. While it's unlikely Sun will collapse, the company will have to make some bold moves in 2004 if it expects to be anything more than a niche player in the enterprise. One potential merger partner is Advanced Micro Devices, which would give Sun the low-cost platform it needs to overcome the economic muscle of Intel servers that will increasingly dominate the data center. AMD, meanwhile, would gain a much-coveted foothold in the enterprise.

• Speaking of Sun, if it is truly serious about being a player in enterprise software, it should probably take a hard look at Vignette. Increasingly, collaboration and workflow tools will become the most valuable elements of the enterprise infrastructure, since this class of software is closest to the actual business processes that make a company run. For Sun to compete in this category, it needs a strong set of Java-based tools.

• Given EMC's move to pick up Documentum, Hewlett-Packard is probably wondering if it can afford another acquisition in the form of FileNet, a provider of document management software that would be an interesting bridge between HP's systems and printer businesses.

id
unit-1659132512259
type
Sponsored post

• Database technology once upon a time was viewed simply as the software used to manage disk storage. Therefore, odds are good that EMC will look to pick up a database vendor to add to its fledgling software empire. At the top of the target list would be MySQL, Sybase and Progress Software.

'For many of these entities to survive in 2004 and beyond, they are going to have to get bigger and expand the overall footprint of their organizations.'

• The two technology leaders in the race to virtualize data are Veritas Software on the storage side and BEA Systems in the application server space. A combination of these two companies would prove a formidable rival to IBM's on-demand computing ambitions.

• The drama surrounding Oracle's bid for PeopleSoft continues. But if that fails, Oracle may need to take a look at Best Software to expand its base in the SMB space. Also, Oracle needs to keep an eye on Veritas. While Oracle Chairman and CEO Larry Ellison continues to dream of taking on SAP, Veritas is quietly taking control of XML data management at the expense of the database. By 2005, the database will become a commodity, leaving Oracle a former shadow of itself unless Ellison acts in 2004.

• Computer Associates International and Symantec probably have identical shopping lists with both looking at Altiris, a fast-growing provider of life-cycle management tools such as patch management systems, and a range of identity management companies such as Oblix, RSA Security and Netegrity.

• And don't be too surprised if Best Software and Progress get together as a way to counter Microsoft's combined application and application development tools thrust into the SMB space.

Whatever ultimately happens, one thing for certain is that 2003 will probably be remembered as only the curtain-raiser for the real drama that will unfold in 2004.

ROBERT FALETRA is on vacation and will return next week. Meanwhile, MICHAEL VIZARD, editor in chief of CRN, wants to know your thoughts. He can be reached at (516) 562-7477 or via e-mail at [email protected].