10 Chip Predictions For 2009

This year looks to be an exciting one for the semiconductor industry and the custom-system channel. Slick new technology from microprocessor makers and hardware manufacturers points the way for smart system integrators to find a competitive edge.

1. Get ready for the clockspeed wars

When Intel unveiled its 45nm, quad-core Core i7 desktop chips, it looked like Chipzilla was set to rule for another year. But whispers out of the Advanced Micro Devices camp about the overclocking headroom in its upcoming 45nm, quad-core Phenom II chips has us wondering if AMD finally has a product to rival Intel's.

2. AMD will deliver more 'make,' less 'break'

AMD has successfully transitioned to the 45nm process and has reached maturity with its quad-core architecture. Meanwhile, the financially dubious acquisition of ATI finally started paying off when AMD knocked Nvidia for a loop with its graphics cards. But the boldest move was spinning off its manufacturing properties to form The Foundry Company with Abu Dhabi investors.

3. Nvidia will face its biggest hurdles

Jen-Hsun Huang's and Nvidia's star shined a little less brightly in 2008 for a few reasons: its first losing quarter in five years; the loss of its high-end discrete graphics performance crown to AMD's ATI unit; and mismanagement of a product recall on mobile GPU chipsets. But victories included the debut of the NVision event; the debunking of rumors it was quitting the chipset business; and the continued growth of its CUDA-based GP-GPU ecosystem.

4. Intel to be vindicated in Vista Capable suit

The conventional, but wrong, take is that Intel 'bullied" Microsoft to drop the Windows Display Driver Model support requirement on PCs included in the Vista Capable campaign starting in April 2006, so that Intel could unload its back inventory of WDDM-deficient 915 chipsets that wouldn't be able to run the Aero Glass graphic interface on Vista. In fact, the evidence we've seen so far suggests that the idea of ditching WDDM support originated with Microsoft's marketing team.

5. The battle's about memory

With Intel and AMD rolling out chips that are very similar in terms of microarchitecture and process technology, the fight in the trenches over divergent memory allocation systems in the rivals' current platforms will be worth watching.

6. Atom's real future isn't in netbooks

Intel built its low-power Atom processors for mobile Internet devices, ultramobile PCs and even smartphones. But in the months following Atom's launch, Intel started really pushing Atom as the chip for a new category of low-cost laptops it called "netbooks." The success of the Asus EeePC and Intel's ongoing battle with the One Laptop Per Child project fueled the hype.

7. Intel will pull out all the stops for 32nm

It's not that Intel's product launch events have been dull, it's just that they've lacked pizzazz. We think that will change for Westmere (code name for Intel's 32nm chips set to debut by year's end) and for the discrete graphics processor code-named Larrabee.

8. More Top 500 supercomputers get graphics

AMD's Shanghai could make the biggest dent in the next Top 500 Supercomputer list because it's ready to drop into the Barcelona-based clusters already on the list. But the really big news: Tokyo Tech became the first supercomputing center to achieve a Top 500 ranking with an Nvidia Tesla-based GPU cluster.

9. 'Exotic' IT solutions

In this climate, what used to look like a risky investment can start to look like a lifeline. For IT solution providers, it's a great time to offer cutting-edge technologies and processes.

10. Worse before better

Unfortunately, the economy is going to tank even more before the sun comes out again. But firms with the cash and intelligence for R&D will survive and thrive.