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1. Pent-Up Enterprise Demand Will Stay Pent Up
It's fashionable to predict a looming enterprise spending spree on IT, which would obviously be welcome news for makers of computer processors and components. But we'll believe it when we see it. Why are we pessimistic? The recession may be over, but many economists perceive more potential time bombs lurking in the financial system. After refresh cycles ground to a halt for better than a year, businesses may be sitting on aging hardware that needs replacing -- especially for any migration from Windows XP to Windows 7.
But our guess is that in 2010, corporations emerging from the worst economic crash in our lifetimes are thinking more about how going lean on IT helped them survive -- rather than reflexively reaching for their wallets to recreate 2007. What's more, as the US government finally starts to tackle the unemployment problem, companies will be more incentivized to spend money creating jobs rather than buying computer hardware.
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