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Ed Moltzen
The Chart
October 09, 2009
Earnings season comes around next week, with a vengeance: Intel and IBM issue their quarterly earnings reports and, the following week, Apple and Microsoft issue theirs. And over the next few weeks scores of tech companies will follow suit.

What's unclear is whether we'll start to see top-line growth return to high tech, whether cost-cutting will still account for the lion's share of any profit increases, whether companies will tell us whether cloud computing is even starting to register as more than a blip on the charts, and what kind of optimism, if any, will return to the fold as the fourth quarter picks up steam. Here are the bellwethers:

Intel: One of the first big companies to voice optimism about a return to "seasonal" buying patterns throughout the marketplace, Intel will likely give us the first glimpse at whether or not the netbook phenomenon continues to grow and expand and whether corporate technology markets are getting back to business. The key: It's all in the mix of product sales that Intel will describe. If the company's profit margin is a point or two higher than most expect, that will likely mean either netbook sales are plateauing or enterprise sales are increasing, or both. Count on a little of each.

Microsoft: Microsoft's last, full quarter with Vista hanging around its neck as its primary desktop operating system will likely be a mixed bag. Company executives have been hinting that it's seeing a slight improvement in online advertising revenue as a result of its new fight with Google using its Bing search engine, but it's unclear how much it has had to pay on the expense side both to launch Bing and to prime the pump for the coming launch this month of Windows 7. Another huge, looming question: Will Microsoft's double-digit declines in client software continue, or will the Redmond, Wash.-based software giant begin to show some much-needed improvement in that space. The good bet: higher expenses during the quarter but no real improvement in client software just yet.

IBM: The Armonk, N.Y.-based computer giant was so sure of itself earlier this year that it took a pass on acquiring Sun Microsystems and let that company go to hated rival Oracle (which is still waiting on European antitrust clearance to close the deal). And why not be sure of itself? Last quarter, as the economy still bumped along in the doldrums, it generated almost 20-percent earnings growth while also generating about $4 billion in cash. Much of that came from success in its software and services arms. Despite the profit growth and cash flow last quarter, IBM's top line declined by double digits. If IBM shows that it's growing its revenue again, even by single digits, it could give hope to the rest of the market.

Apple: Apple started shipping its "Snow Leopard" OS in the third quarter. It's also been shipping iPhone 3GS, and has become more aggressive than ever in pricing its iPod lineup. As of Friday, the average of analyst estimates calls for Apple to turn in $1.40 in earnings per share but, according to WhisperNumber.com, the "whisper number" -- unofficial and speculative estimates from surveyed private investors -- calls for $1.45. If Apple picks up a point of market share against Microsoft, and its iPod sales kicked into gear as a result of its price cutting, that number could actually be conservative.

A few other points:

The global financial meltdown began in September 2008, meaning that starting now and lasting for the next few quarters, companies should have pretty easy year-over-year earnings comparisons to make -- in other words, double-digit growth shouldn't be surprising for a while.

But whether those turn out to be "quality" growth numbers, driven by new products, strategies and channel activity, will become more apparent over the next month as numbers are posted and companies file their more detailed, quarterly reports with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

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