AMD's 64-Bit Gambit

Maybe more than any single factor, the slow process of porting codes over from 32 bits to 64 bits has placed a drag on the growth of the hybrid 32/64 market. Early adopters in high-technology segments have come on board quickly; other sectors have lagged.

The availability of 64-bit operating-system software has aided Opteron's advance in the traditionally slow-moving server space. Linux distributions that support the processor are available from Red Hat, SuSE and others. And 64-bit versions of Windows XP and Server 2003, currently in beta testing, are expected later this year. Because Linux has long been embraced by the server community, the fact that 64-bit Windows is still in beta testing hasn't really hurt things.

On the desktop where Windows dominates and Linux holds only about a 3 percent share, it's a different story. Opteron's cousin, the Athlon 64 desktop processor, isn't expected to take off in a big way until 64-bit Windows XP ships later this year. For its part, Intel hasn't officially announced a desktop competitor to Athlon 64, although it has said it will be ready to launch such a part--probably a P4-class Prescott fitted with extensions--once Microsoft ships its OS.

"The reality is, the transition to 64 bits will be gradual," says Jerry Braun, the Intel product manager in charge of its new Xeon. "It will start in niches where large, linear, flat-address spaces can be beneficial. Databases are an obvious example."

Scientific niches are another clear-cut target. "The strategy of Opteron has been to penetrate our strong beachhead, which has been high-performance computing," says Patrick Patla, Opteron marketing manager at AMD. High-performance computing encompasses applications areas such as research, geophysical modeling (oil and gas), computer-aided design and electronic design automation. "Now, you're starting to see our strategic partners bring out platforms that address the other parts of the market," he says.

"When we look at where we're headed, it's the mainstream enterprise," AMD's Knox agrees. "That's Windows, SQL Server, Oracle, DB2--those types of applications are going to take us into the mainstream." He admits, however, that those apps won't kick in until 64-bit Windows is fully validated.

Once 64-bit Windows hits, AMD resellers intend to aim at the SMB market. "As soon as the software can take advantage of the chip, we'll see corporations move to it," Honor International's Rueda says. "There's a lag between the hardware and the software, and it's going to be at least six [more] months."

The rebounding economy may also help to accelerate the 64-bit transition. "Most of our channel partners are looking for a pretty strong finish to the year," AMD's Bixler says.

While VARs are praying for a continued rebound, that already seems to be happening for AMD. In little more than a year since its introduction in April 2003, Opteron has already carved out a share of nearly 5 percent of the 7.5 million-unit market for workstation and server processors, according to semiconductor analysts Mercury Research in Cave Creek, Ariz.

Although the cautiousness of the server market continues to cast a long shadow, Mercury principal analyst Dean McCarron has concluded that AMD is clearly doing well.

"For AMD to get the market share and the design wins--three of the top four OEMs--that they have, it's definitely a credible accomplishment on their part," he says.