Jason Clark, at iMedia Connection, writes:

I guess we don't have to go into how much publicity Twitter is getting these days. Twitter's microblogging strategy is a huge paradigm shift, and the effect on communication is massive. But Twitter's fame and glory is not going to last.

His piece is entitled, "Why Twitter Will Soon Become Obsolete." It's worth reading in full.

Clark draws some understandable conclusions about Twitter, and why it will be a flash in the pan. However, Twitter shouldn't be looked at in and of itself -- like technology writers and social media critics like to do with products or services. It's got to be viewed as part of a greater whole, and in the context of our times. Twitter is only one of several developing technologies, use models and products -- that have grown since the launch of Apple's iPhone in 2007 -- that are feeding off each other and growing along the way.

Which leads us to the iPhone Archipelago, and why it's overblown to claim that any one island in this group of islands will disappear. Over the past two years, since the launch of Apple's first-generation iPhone, a series of separate technologies and products have exploded in usage. Each technology is strong enough in the market to stand on its own, yet becomes stronger when tied to the same ecosystem -- much like islands in an archipelago share the same ecosystem:

- SMS text messaging, already popular when the iPhone arrived, is now off the charts. Carriers, like AT&T Wireless and Verizon, have begun offering all-you-can-eat SMS plans (AT&T's covers families in the same plan) for $30 or less. With the arrival of unlimited texting on easy-to-use devices, it's ubiquitous across the U.S. and the rest of the world as never before. This is the first summer of mainstream, unlimited texting plans. We'll see over the next several months how big a deal this really is.

- Twitter, which was built on the idea of connecting social circles via SMS, has become more than just a social network. Because Twitter opened its API up very early, a strong, growing number of applications are being written to Twitter as a platform. That's why those who try to measure Twitter's success by the number of visitors to its Web page, or by page views, are missing the story. Twitter is now also a cross-device tool: Web browser, SMS, smartphone or desktop -- whatever works best for an individual's usage habits.

In a series of videos posted by PR firm Porter Novelli on YouTube, Twitter co-founder Biz Stone explains that access to Twitter from mobile devices, desktop applications and SMS now exceeds access from Web browsers by a 3-to-1 margin. That's huge. Many popular analytics engines aren't even built to factor in that hybrid access model -- meaning it's difficult, if not impossible, to get an accurate measurement today of Twitter's full use.

- Apple's iTunes App Store is now a critical place to look for developer and marketing talent in technology. Because Apple has set a very low barrier to entry for developers, from a technical standpoint, and because of the potential for significant revenue, it's becoming more important by the day. The App Store and the iPhone software platform are doing to the development community what Windows did in the early- to mid-'90s: It's winning it over. Many of those new applications are for social networking services including Twitter.

- The iPhone did change the game two years ago, and the game continues to change because of it. With the addition of push technology (hopefully with the MobileMe kinks worked out of it), better battery life, video and photo messaging to the iPhone platform, usage models will continue to evolve. In turn, SMS, Twitter and the work developers produce will continue to evolve. We'll start to see it soon, when iPhone 3.0 becomes generally available.

Clark argues that other products on the horizon, like Google Wave, look to be so compelling that people will flock to them, first, and that will make Twitter much less important. But by the time Google releases Wave, its best chance of success will be to become part of the archipelago -- and not an island unto itself. Getting folks to change iPhone bookmarks, stop clicking desktop Apps and stop using SMS replies isn't as easy as getting them to just click on another Web page.

Will Twitter disappear? Well, how about all those doomy predictions two years ago that the iPhone would fail because its battery life stunk and because it wasn't business-ready? How are those working out?