VoIP War Rages On

After a solid week of speculation, the fate of Avaya is now somewhat clear. The world was aware that the company was in play, and the world, as it is wont to do, could not help but speculate about what might happen to the company that began as Ma Bell and lived as a part of Lucent Technologies before being cast off on its own to fend for itself.

LARRY HOOPER Can be reached via e-mail at lrhooper@cmp.com.

The speculation was predictable and familiar. Will Cisco buy Avaya? Will Nortel buy Avaya? Will Cisco buy Nortel? (Wait, that was last year.)

So, as the vultures circled over the remains of one of the three strongest players in the VoIP space, the fantasy deals played themselves out in the press. If Cisco or Nortel bought Avaya, imagine what would happen! It would devastate the space and slow innovation! It would catapult the space into dominance and stimulate innovation!

Alas, none of those predictions will come true. And many are happy with the outcome. Avaya last week ended the speculation when it unveiled plans to go private via an $8.2 billion merger agreement with investment firms Silver Lake and TPG Capital. The deal won't be sealed for a few months and another buyer could swoop in, but in all likelihood, Avaya will be a privately held company within six months.

By going private, Avaya can spend less time worrying about the markets and more time building its VoIP business, company COO Michael Turk told CRN's Jennifer Hagendorf Follett. "It provides the company with the opportunity to become very aggressive in the private environment," Turk told CRN. "In the public environment, there are always the pushes and pulls of quarterly performance."

For the channel, the deal could go either way. Avaya has a solid portion of its business going through the channel, but its track record is littered with bitter partners who can weave long tales of customer stealing, taking deals direct and hardball reps forcing new agreements on them.

So, while the deal will keep the VoIP space lively with Avaya, Cisco and Nortel battling for the mind share and the money of both enterprise customers and solution providers, the new owners of Avaya could decide the path to quick returns would be to turn toward direct sales.

Let's hope Avaya's moneymen learn a little faster than the channel's new evangelist, Michael Dell.

Will Avaya go more channel or less?Let me know at lrhooper@cmp.com or post your comment below.