The Changing VoIP Landscape

The Equity Equation
Cisco and Microsoft aren't the only two vendors that will be slugging it out for supremacy in the unified communications market. While both companies' pockets are deep, several rivals stand to benefit from shifts in their own equity equations.

Solution providers expect to see a much more aggressive Avaya after it comes off the stock market through its acquisition by private equity firms Silver Lake Partners and TPG Capital.

"Avaya going private takes quarterly earnings pressure off and lets them focus on the development they need to do," says Mike Taylor, CTO and vice president of emerging technology at Strategic Products & Services, an Avaya partner in Cedar Knolls, N.J. "Who knows? Maybe Silver Lake has another acquisition in mind that will help. There is a large potential opportunity for them."

3Com has already unveiled plans to spin off its TippingPoint security division via a public offering. It would also benefit if a takeover by private equity firms ever materializes, solution providers say.

"The best-case scenario is they dump TippingPoint and get the private equity buyout and a new board," says Verteks' Gulling. "The way to get out of a slump is to re-energize."

ShoreTel, Sunnyvale, Calif., is certainly invigorated after its IPO. Solution providers hope the company's newfound wealth will manifest in several ways.

"We hope to see more engineering resources, more marketing resources and more sales development," says Westron's Casey. "They've run a pretty lean staff in terms of sales and marketing, so we hope to see a boost."

Alcatel-Lucent and the combined Mitel/Inter-Tel also stand to cast wider shadows across the market with their increased post-merger size.

With so many players making aggressive moves in the market, it's difficult for solution providers to predict which vendor will end up on top.

"Customers are starting to see some of these things and at least have questions about what it means, but I'm not sure anybody knows yet what it means," says Strategic Products & Services' Taylor.

But that's no reason for partners to rest on their laurels. Solution providers that move now to build VoIP and application skills will be in demand as the inevitable market shifts play out.

"I think seeing the actual impact is still a little ways away," Taylor adds, "but it is coming."

KEVIN MCLAUGHLIN contributed to this story.