Is Cisco In Danger Of Losing Its Networking Crown?

VARs responding to the UBS survey took note of Juniper's switching momentum. The UBS survey found that Juniper's EX Series switches are gaining acceptance from VARs, which is a turnaround on UBS' prior survey. VARs are now optimistic about Juniper's potential against Cisco, although more U.S. VARs are feeling that way than European VARs. Overall, UBS found, two-thirds of respondents felt that Juniper's new LAN switch will improve its position as a viable No. 2 to Cisco, while 59 percent expected strong channel adoption of the EX line.

Mike Banic, Juniper's vice president of product marketing, Ethernet platforms business group, said Juniper's growing strength in the channel comes from its recognition that fewer devices were needed and that the network needed to be easier to manage. That, coupled with the systematic rollout of the EX line, got it on VAR radar screens.

"Their top concern is selling more and lowering their costs per revenue dollar," Banic said of solution providers. VARs are also facing bigger deals, but still need to execute on projects in less time and for less money, another factor that makes alternative vendors attractive.

So far, Banic said, the EX line has been deployed in 100 customers and in 2008's second quarter brought in $10 million, a sign that the channel is taking notice.

Kobuszewski said it's still too early to tell where Juniper will play in the LAN landscape. He said its timing might be right, but Juniper is still "late to the game."

Despite UBS' assessment, Kerravala said Juniper is more of a perceived threat to Cisco's channel dominance than an actual threat. "Juniper doesn't have the products, not in the enterprise," he said. "What matters is breadth of product. They're missing a lot of components to compete for LAN business."

It's the completeness of Cisco solutions, Bahr said, that keep Cisco's channel strong and focused. "We don't look at a particular point or technology, we're more about the solution."

With that solution vision, Bahr said, Cisco will continue to stay one step ahead of competitors and maintain the channel relationships necessary for solution providers to succeed.

Verteks' Gulling, however, said VARs should be on their toes to seize opportunities with smaller, lower-cost vendors. He's started preaching smaller vendors' interoperability with Cisco as a main selling point.

"Time and time again, people that were all Cisco have less money," he said. "Smaller vendors, like 3Com, are going to have a lot of opportunities in Cisco shops."