Mark Oct. 22 on your calendar. That's the day that Apple's classic "I'm a Mac. I'm A PC" attack ads are going to cease to be humorous.
Oct. 22 is, of course, the formal release date of Windows 7. It also marks the death of the product that has done more to damage Microsoft's reputation than anything in its 34 year history -- Vista. Good riddance, Vista. Long live Windows 7.
Here's what I believe will happen: The Windows 7 launch will take those market-share gains Apple has seen over the past several years and make them disappear.
How frightened is Apple that its about to be whammied by Windows 7? Well, BusinessWeek is reporting that Apple is planning to launch a marketing blitz aimed at convincing PC buyers to instead choose a Mac.
BusinessWeek says that Apple will likely make the case that PCs are more susceptible to viruses. A flat-out false claim. There are a bunch of Mac myths. And better security than Windows is the biggest one. Security experts say that if Mac users are less susceptible to attack, it's simply due to the fact that there are fewer viruses written for Macs than for Windows.
BusinessWeek also claims Apple will make fun of Microsoft for making Windows XP owners go through what is by all accounts a cumbersome process to upgrade from Windows XP to Windows 7. Talk about a canard. That duck just don't fly. No one in their right mind would even think of upgrading a Windows XP system to Windows 7. That's an exercise for unemployed nerds with too much time on their hands. It simply doesn't make sense. Windows 7 is a cause celebre to look at buying a new system. It is not a reason to look at upgrading a well-running Windows XP system. You wouldn't upgrade a well-running Mac system either. Get a life.
Yes, the Mac has had a great run for the past couple of years. Gartner says Apple's share of the U.S. computer market for the third quarter amounted to 8.8 percent, up from 8.6 percent in the year-ago period. My bet is that market share is going to drop below 5 percent by the end of 2010.
Apple CEO Steve Jobs has done a great job of exploiting the shortcomings of Vista for some significant market-share gains. Windows 7 has none of those shortcomings and all the advantages of the Windows brand at its best.
Jobs needs a new target. Windows 7 is a great product and Apple is going to feel the pain from it.
