For One VAR, 'HP-Compaq' Is A Ho-Hum Event

"I'm idly keeping an eye on it, but there's not a lot I can do to change matters," said Goldberg from his Brooklyn office Tuesday afternoon, just as press releases were flying between HP's board and dissenting board member Walter Hewlett on whether or not enough votes had been cast to approve the proposed merger.

"Are things going to change with HP and Compaq getting together? Undoubtedly," says Goldberg, whose network integration and services company partners with both HP and Compaq regularly. "But there's not a lot any of us can do about it. There are much more intelligent people than me out there who are confused as to whether it's going to go through or not or whether it will be a good move or not."

In many ways, Goldberg's attitude about the merger is a healthy one. Since Washington Computer, which serves clients throughout the New York metropolitan area, works closely with both companies, he's pretty sure that no matter what the outcome is, his relationships will survive--either continuing as partnerships with two separate vendors or merging into a relationship with a single, larger player.

So business will go on either way. Or as Goldberg puts it, "What will be will be."

"I'm not even betting on one side or the other," he says. "At one point or another in my life I've had stock in both companies, and right now I have stock in neither. I have great respect for both companies, but it's risky either way."

Goldberg says that when Compaq acquired DEC several years ago, there was a definite change in philosophy at Compaq that pushed the company further into systems integration and services. That change, he says, ultimately put the company in a position to be closer to HP's way of thinking. Now he wonders if the combined company would see a similar evolution. Or will sheer size get in the way of it and its channel?

"They are so large and with so many divisions doing so many things, that you're touching certain parts of the business but not others," Goldberg says. "And unfortunately, attitudes in the rest of the business affect the part you're touching but you really have no way to evaluate what the long-term results are going to be."

Despite the risks, he says he's not too concerned about the merger's impact on the companies' channel strategies, since history has shown that most manufacturers stray from the channel at some point or another, only to end up coming back sooner or later. "There will probably be moves back and forth, pushing and tugging as they try selling direct, then they'll go back to selling though the channel," he says. "But in the long run as long as the channel serves a fundamentals financial benefit they are going to continue using it."