E-Mail Convulsions Ahead As Lotus, Microsoft Plan Massive Changes

Both IBM's Lotus Software group and Microsoft, which between them own the lion's share of the corporate messaging and collaboration market, have signaled major changes to the underlying infrastructure of their offerings.

Lotus acknowledged earlier this year that it plans to swap out the Notes Storage Facility (NSF) of Domino in favor of a relational DB2-based store. Likewise, Microsoft plans to switch out the Web Storage System (WSS) in Exchange Server 2000 for a relational store. Lotus also backpedaled on plans to include its in-house code for J2EE support in favor of incorporating some existing IBM WebSphere technology.

At least one industry watcher thinks those changes are just the beginning of a much broader technology swap at Lotus. Matt Cain, vice president of the Meta Group, expects Lotus/IBM to also migrate current Domino management capabilities to Tivoli technology and even switch out the Notes/Domino directory for IBM's SecureWay. A Lotus spokesman said such thinking is premature and that no such decisions have been made.

But even just the data store move has huge ramifications for people who have built applications atop this software.

Ironically, Lotus will be disproportionately hurt by the very success it had entrenching Domino as an application server.

"People haven't written [as many apps atop Exchange, so whether those apps will run or break on SQL Server is almost immaterial. The converse is true with IBM. Most organizations have a significant investment in applications written atop Domino, and there's no question that they'll break moving to the new Domino," Cain said.

Some solution providers agreed. "Domino houses become Domino houses accidentally. It was an incredibly powerful application server and so easy for nondevelopers to develop for that they became developers by accident. But then the cost to move off [Domino is ridiculous," said Robert Ginsberg, CTO of Version3, a Columbia, S.C., solution provider. The problem with Domino, he said, is that although it's a strong platform, it's expensive to maintain. "When people realize the cost, they wonder how they can get off. It's unstructured; they don't know where anything is."

IBM's inherent problem is taking that huge population of nonstructured developers and getting them to WebSphere--IBM's application server--over the next five years, he added.

And while Microsoft executives swear migration to the next version of Exchange Server will not break existing Exchange implementations, solution providers are not convinced of that, either. "Our existing applications will not carry over to the next Exchange," one partner said bluntly.

Still, Exchange 2000's current WSS store at least is built atop relational technology, meaning the migration to a SQL Server-based store will not likely be as revolutionary as what Lotus plans, observers said.

"Whenever you look at what IBM is up to with Notes, DB2 and Domino and what Microsoft's up to with Yukon, Microsoft needs to beat IBM to the market. ... It's a footrace, and we're betting on Microsoft because they've always come through for us," said Frederick Volking, senior architect for Hunter Stone, another Columbia, S.C., solution provider.

Even as Lotus preps Domino Release 6 for a summer release, Microsoft is plotting ways to move Domino users over to Exchange. The company is negotiating quietly with Casahl Technology, San Ramon, Calif., to use Casahl technology for data migration purposes, several sources said. Casahl did not comment. While not commenting specifically on products and technologies, a Microsoft source said the company is evaluating several different technologies that provide co-existence of applications.

Other observers aren't so sure either Lotus or Microsoft will win in this move to new technologies. They point to lighter-weight, cheaper e-mail that meets most customer needs. Analysts cite Gordano Ltd. and Rockliffe as possible contenders in corporate mail going forward.

"The whole market is in transition. First, the world is moving toward modular systems built on standards using browsers and mobile devices. Second, it's heading toward portal solutions for mobile workers, not just for e-mail and calendaring but for other apps as well," said Gartner analyst Joyce Graff.

Increasingly, enterprises are scrutinizing the often-hefty costs associated with mail systems coming out of the client/server realm. "We're at a point where mail is more and more cumbersome, more and more expensive and beyond IT workers. Who needs all that capability?" Graff asked.

More companies will evaluate lighter-weight mail offerings, now typically associated with ISPs, that could reduce their costs to maybe $5.95 a month from $20 to $25 per user, per month, she noted. She predicts that many companies will go to a tiered system, with knowledge workers who need collaborative talents using one system while the bulk of employees use just e-mail.

Corporate users are loath to forget already painful migrations just to get to Exchange 2000 and Domino Release 5, Graff noted. She estimates only 5 percent of the Microsoft Exchange base--Microsoft claims 100 million users--are on the current version.

Dana Gardner, analyst with the Aberdeen Group, concurs. "It was a large upgrade to [Exchange 5.5 because of storage and memory issues, then Microsoft pointed people to WSS [in Exchange 2000, now they're yanking that and there's ambiguity about their next message store with Yukon another six months to a year away," he noted. Yukon is the code name for the next release of Microsoft's SQL Server database, which will serve as the basis for the next Exchange store.

Meta Group is advising corporate clients to be wary of continued commitments to Domino, given Lotus' changes. "We're telling customers to think long and hard about commitment to Domino. They have to decide if their long-term commitment is to J2EE or .Net, and then at their management infrastructure, and then on what their relational database is, and then directory, portal strategies," Cain said.

Of course, the same migration talk that brings headaches to IT professionals is music to the ears of integrators and solution providers, who could reap rewards from all this trauma.

"Of course integrators love this. This is like the full employment act for them," said Meta Group's Cain.

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