Research Firms Agree: 2010 Will Mark A Return To Growth

Global IT shipments are expected to increase 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter compared with last year, due in large part to strong demand in Asia, according to Raymond James & Associates.

Raymond James released the figure late last week in advance of its annual IT Supply Chain Conference, which is taking place Tuesday. The firm noted that the fourth quarter will mark the first year-over-year increase since the third quarter of 2008.

"This return to growth is being fueled by a macro-driven recovery in North America, a double-digit currency boost in Europe and a strong rebound in Asia," wrote Brian Alexander, managing director of equity research at Raymond James, in an e-mail.

Indeed, Asia IT shipments are expected to increase 20 percent in the fourth quarter, according to Alexander. North America IT shipments are expected to decline 3 percent in the quarter, which is still much improved compared with recent quarters, according to Raymond James. European IT shipments are expected to increase 2 percent but fall 8 percent in local currency.

Meanwhile, FBR Capital Markets is projecting IT spending growth of 1.6 percent in 2010, based on its survey of 100 respondents. That projection follows a contraction of 1.8 percent in IT spending this year, according to FBR.

Within those numbers, software spending is projected to increase 2.1 percent, slightly outpacing IT overall, according to the firm.

"If the economy remains stable, we believe that both of these figures could have upward bias, with software spending benefiting disproportionately, given its highly strategic nature," according to FBR.

Research firm Gartner also gave its two cents recently, predicting worldwide IT spending to be $3.3 trillion in 2010, up slightly from $3.2 trillion expected for this year but down from $3.4 trillion in 2008.

Meanwhile, the Global Technology Distribution Council also sees an economic recovery occurring.

The council, which represents IT distributors with a combined more than $100 billion in annual revenue, reported third-quarter sales increased 10.7 percent compared with the second quarter in the U.S. and 2.3 percent in Europe. It marked the first time both regions reported sequential improvement since the economy worsened in late 2008.

"We can't declare that we're out of the woods yet," GTDC CEO Tim Curran said in a statement. "The tech industry will take time to crank back up to the levels it has achieved in previous years. We're still very encouraged by the current positive sales trends in distribution, particularly in the SMB space, and we have every reason to expect continued improvement on through 2010."

The GTDC sees mobile solutions, cloud computing, security, storage, point-of-sale, wireless networking and other communications technologies as drivers of industry recovery, according to Curran.

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