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The percentage of revenue derived from sale of packaged apps will drop from 87 percent in 2010 to 66 percent in 2020, with prices of cloud apps dropping to 35 percent of 2010 levels. In contrast, the percentage of new apps consumed via SaaS will jump from 20 percent to 41 percent.
Big data technologies to handle massive demands of hosting IT resources will rise in importance, IDC's Del Prete said.
The use of big data by businesses will become more commonly used as smaller enterprises adopt it. By 2020, Oracle, HP, Microsoft and IBM will have adopted social media technologies.
Mobility will continue its explosive growth.
The use of employee-owned devices in business is already happening, increasing from 31 percent of the workforce in 2010 to 51 percent in 2012.
Products will evolve. While netbooks shipped 40 million units in 2010, ultrabooks will grow in popularity by 2020, shipping more than 175 million.
While iPad was the netbook market leader, shipping 19 million in first year, Amazon kindle devices will be the price and volume leader.
While communication devices installed in 2010 numbered 7 billion, the number of devices installed will reach 29 billion by 2020.
These forces will drive demand, Del Prete said.
"Companies that sell technology will have a profitable future," he said. "People are wondering what is the right mix of technology. So, companies selling gear now can sell software to help companies figure out how they are going from private to public clouds."
Del Prete said businesses will use hybrid, or "blended" clouds," as technology evolves to support sophisticated platforms, applications, devices, and infrastructure.
"To manage apps in the cloud, everybody will be needed. Businesses will want one suite that will give a combination of Oracle, HP and Microsoft software to manage how to get a single dashboard of features from different cloud suppliers."
PUBLISHED AUG. 21, 2012
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