It's Time To Embrace Linux
For VARs, this leaves only one question worth asking about the open-source operating system. Unfortunately, it's a big one: How do I make money on something that's essentially free?
Far better minds than mine have troubled over this conundrum. Microsoft, for its part, has come to the obvious conclusion that there's more profit in its proprietary software. To fend off Linux, it has even launched its own Web site touting what it claims is Windows' lower total cost of ownership and better performance.
Doubtless, Windows remains the more widely deployed platform. But end users are switching on additional Linux servers every day. They're also starting to evaluate the use of Linux on the desktop.
So, rather than engaging in a pointless debate about which OS is better, VARs must start planning for a dual-platform future, unless they want customers to head for the exits as their needs for open-source support begin to gel.
The numbers tell the story. Linux server installations will grow at a double-digit clip for the next several years, according to Bill Weinberg, the newly hired evangelist for the Open Source Development Labs (OSDL). A 10 percent increase is expected this year, rising to a growth rate of 30 percent annually by 2008.
OSDL is the Beaverton, Ore.-based consortium devoted to promoting Linux, where Linux creator Linus Torvalds serves as a fellow. Weinberg himself is no slouch, having come to the position following his stint as a co-founder of embedded Linux specialists MontaVista Software.
As for Linux on the desktop, it may be on the cusp. Some critics have charged that Linux remains stalled there, with a market share of approximately 2.8 percent. Weinberg disagrees. "Growth is relative," he says. "Linux has been making big strides there." He projects a 6 percent to 10 percent rise in desktop usage over the next four years.
Figures we've gathered here at VARBusiness similarly point to an upward trend. According to VARBusiness' recent State of the Enterprise study, the percentage of IT enterprise executives reporting that desktop Linux will be very important in allocating their IT budget resources rose from 5 percent in 2003 to 7 percent in 2004.
Linux has been slow to penetrate the desktop because it's hard to install, and even harder to fine-tune for proper graphics and sound once loaded.
Some Linux distributions—notably Linspire and Fedora—have attempted to ease installation, but it remains a big issue for most end users.
Weinberg suggests the route to desktop success is to forget about end-user self-installs and rely instead on corporate PC support teams instead. "We're working to make Linux viable on the corporate desktop, where you have an IT team for installation and administration," he told me.
That's a good strategy boosting client-side penetration in the business world, although, of course, it cedes home-user desktops to Windows. (Personally, I believe the Linux community will lick installation bugaboos within the next 18 to 24 months.)
Another roadblock to Linux has been concerns over legal wrangling. SCO is suing IBM and Novell over various copyright and licensing allegations; SCO has also filed intellectual-property actions against software end users AutoZone and DaimlerChrysler.
When the courtroom tussles began last year, Linux users, as well as applications developers, feared that they, too, might one day be sued. Many Linux developers went into quiet mode, figuring that staying beneath SCO's radar screen was the safest strategy.
But SCO's actions have become bound up in legal motions and countersuits. Many experts believe not much will come of its original actions. And the flurry of additional suits that was feared does not seem to be forthcoming.
"SCO has quieted down," Weinberg says. "People have realized that most of the legal activity is not about Linux itself--it's about contractual obligations."
The adoption of Linux hasn't gone down, Weinberg believes. "People have gotten quiet," he says. "They aren't talking because they don't want to attract attention and a possible lawsuit."
Our research data concurs with his assessment of both rising adoption and diminished legal worries. In a VARBusiness survey focused on application development, nearly one-third of survey participants said they've developed Linux apps in the past 6 months. More tellingly, almost half plan to develop Linux apps during the next 6 months. On the legal front, 75 percent of VARs with Linux customers say those customers have not raised any concerns about open source arising from the recent disputes.
If fairly smooth sailing lies ahead for Linux, that only makes more timely the question with which we opened this column: How do VARs make money on this stuff?
Weinberg believes VARs must embrace a paradigm shift, though at this point his advice is more conceptual than practical. "Linux invalidates existing business models," he said, referring to the traditional per-seat payments for software. "On the other hand, Linux creates new opportunities. The real value is in integrating the total solution. So for VARs, the glass is half full; they have a new opportunity."
The first step is to learn how to support Linux installations. Next is to become adept at integrating key open-source applications, such as the MySQL database and the Apache Web server.
We'll be talking more about how VARs can embrace Linux at my panel in August at VARBusiness' upcoming XChange Conference in Chicago. We invite you to join us there.