Can AMD Rival Intel In 64-Bit Wars?

And yet there was nary a dubious face in the crowd, as AMD's tag-team of cheerleading executives, president and CEO Hector Ruiz and co-founder and chairman Jerry Sanders, made their case for 64-bit systems as the future of computing and their Opteron server-based processor as the centerpiece to it all. As big-name partners gave testament to AMD's innovations and the Opteron's performance, low price and ability to also run 32-bit applications, the claps and hurrahs heated up an already steamy, low-ceilinged room. This sounds convincing.

So, does AMD have a shot at turning its fortunes around with a big bet on high-performance computing? Perhaps. Because despite delivering Opteron two years after Intel introduced its 64-bit Itanium, AMD isn't really playing market catch-up. Intel has yet to make noticeable headway with Itanium, courtesy of on-the-fence support from the likes of Microsoft and slower-than-slow sales of HP's Itanium-based systems. Frankly, the demand hasn't been there.

And there are a few things working in AMD's favor on the demand front. The company has wisely constructed its 64-bit processor in such a way that it plays nice with the mass of 32-bit applications in existence now. That's welcome news to enterprise customers who aren't eager to face the choice of losing their existing applications investment, or, in the interest of saving it, having to laboriously port every piece of code over to 64-bit hardware. That's the conundrum facing Itanium systems customers. Sure, they can prepare for the future now by buying high-ticket Itanium boxes to run 64-bit apps, but they also have to keep running those Intel Xeon-based boxes to accommodate their stable of business-critical 32-bit apps. So much for server consolidation.

The other thing working in AMD's favor is price. Bottom line: Opteron is a heck of a lot cheaper than Itanium.

What remains to be seen is how well AMD can execute on its partnering strategy with Tier 1 hardware vendors. On Tuesday, IBM was the lone wolf pledging to deliver a system based on Opteron. Ruiz declared that "there is not a computer company in the world that is not considering Opteron." For AMD's sake, let's hope he's right, and the HPs and Dells of the world are ready to jump on board.

AMD also needs to pull together a strategy around supporting Java in the 64-bit realm. Last, but certainly not least important, the company will have to try to outmaneuver Intel's marketing muscle to convince OEMs and ISVs that it can be taken for real as an enterprise player.

Judging by the reception this week, AMD may be well on its way. The company seems to have done a solid job reaching out to systems builders, component manufacturers and other partners in advance of the Opteron launch. One manufacturer of high-end server blades, when asked why he dropped Intel in favor of AMD processors two years ago, simply replied: "AMD has been easier to work with and that has made it easier for us to work with our customers."

We'll see if that translates into market share.

Do you think AMD has a shot at succeeding in the x86 64-bit computing market? Drop me a line at [email protected].