Clear Skies Ahead As Chip Designs Debut

With virtualization and ever-greater leaps in price performance reaching from one end of the value chain to the other, driven by server software, CPUs and graphics, the next two years mean change at break-neck speed—even for an industry used to quick changes. It also means that system builders large and small will in many ways have easier access to more powerful technology than in the past. Here's a look at 10 milestones you should track over the next 12 to 24 months because they have the potential to alter the IT business significantly.

WiMax The new wireless connectivity technology will experience its most critical phase to date in early 2008, as the first WiMax-based products are expected to enter the commercial market. The WiMax Forum indicates more than 300 WiMax connectivity providers in more than 65 countries have already begun rolling out capabilities; products were in their testing and certification phase in early 2008. So, the products, components and technologies that will be the first to be available to OEMs and system builders should be revealed soon.

Windows Server 2008/Hyper-V Microsoft's move to bring virtualization to its server platform will have huge implications for all of information technology—but in the custom-system space it will require a major commitment to planning and strategy. Hyper-V is in beta now but due out officially several months after Windows Server 2008; as an integrated software platform, it will rapidly speed server and storage consolidation because data center virtualization will now be available to the masses. Everything from gaming to financial solutions could feel the impact.

Barcelona AMD's touted, then flawed, then delayed quad-core server platform is supposed to be ready—at long last—during this quarter. On its price/performance story alone it has the power to shake things up in the data center and provide a weapon for smaller system builders to compete with Tier 1 OEMs. (That's if there are no more glitches.) As of late 2007, when AMD announced it would delay mass shipments of the processor until it could fix an errata, system builders throughout the channel were holding onto back orders for the quad-core Opteron.

Montreal AMD's trip around the world lands it in Montreal in 2009—so to speak. The company says it will launch the "Montreal" version of its Opteron, quad-core processor then. This processor will be designed with up to 1 Mb of L2 cache and up to 12 Mb of L3 cache, in addition to having enhanced Hypertransport capabilities. AMD is also slated to roll out its Socket G3 architecture, code-named Piranha, at around the same time.

Shanghai Sometime between the second half of 2008 and the early part of 2009, AMD executives said, the chip maker will begin shipping the follow-up to Barcelona. Shanghai will have 6 Mb of L3 cache, compared to 2 Mb in Barcelona. But reports are that Shanghai is more than just a cache-bump. Shanghai will be AMD's first 45nm processor. In addition to features already on Barcelona, such as AMD-Virtualization, RDDR2 and HyperTransport 3.0, AMD executives also said the processor will offer IPC enhancements over the earlier chip.

Nehalem Along with Server 2008, Intel's next-generation, Hi-k, 45nm processor platform, code-named Nehalem, could have the biggest impact on IT in 2008 and—potentially—well beyond 2008. Intel says the chip isn't just scalable, it's dynamically scalable and can support up to eight cores and up to 16 threads. And, Intel says, it will include Intel QuickPath Architecture, which features memory distributed to each processor with integrated memory controllers and high-speed point-to-point interconnects to unleash the performance of next-generation Intel multicore processors.

The Intel Modular Server Intel began shipping this monster box to system builders in late 2007, then launched it officially in mid-January. Because of its unique design—with Layer 2 networking, storage and Xeon-based servers integrated together—the Intel Modular Server could gain traction quickly. A key milestone will be Intel's first-quarter earnings announcement, when it could reveal early adoption numbers in what is starting out to be a tough beginning of the year.

Westmere Just as the market would seemingly be settling into PCs and servers based on 45nm technology, Intel is set to launch Westmere, the code-name for its 32nm processor, some time during 2009. Few details are out on Westmere just yet, but the fact that Intel continues to commit to keeping up with its pace of delivering smaller chips means that by 2009 you can count on even greater price-performance improvements in desktops, servers and notebooks.

Nvidia/SLI The GPU company is launching new pieces of technology that are compatible with Intel's Yorkfield and Penryn processors, based on its SLI (Scalable Link Interface) that supports a multi-GPU solution in a single system. The 790i chipset from Nvidia will support DDR3 memory for higher performance.

Industry consolidation Count on continued consolidation in the systems and components space. Consider that in the past two-plus years, AMD has acquired graphics company ATI; Dell has bought Alienware; and Hewlett-Packard Co. has bought VoodooPC. Storage maker Seagate Technology LLC closed its deal to buy Maxtor. That comes on the heels of mega deals in the early 2000s, including the HP-Compaq merger and Lenovo's acquisition of IBM's PC business. The consolidation—especially in Tier 1—means the competitive landscape, along with pricing and availability, continue to change drastically.