Gartner Ups PC Shipments Forecast Despite Flat Sales

In July, Gartner (Stamford, Conn.) projected that worldwide PC shipments will grow 10.5 percent in 2005 and 8.2 percent in 2006.

Now, worldwide PC unit shipments are on pace to grow 12.7 percent in 2005, according to the research firm. But worldwide PC revenue is forecast to grow just 0.5 percent this year, according to Gartner.

Worldwide PC unit shipments are projected to hit 206.6 million in 2005, with revenue totaling $202.7 billion, according to the firm. In 2006, worldwide PC units are expected to grow 10.5 percent, but PC revenue will decline 0.4 percent.

PC growth will continue to be buoyed by strong mobile PC shipments. Worldwide mobile PC units are forecast to grow 31 percent in 2005.

But the disparity in growth rates is attributable to continuing declines in the average selling price (ASP) of PCs, said George Shiffler, principal analyst for Gartner's client platforms research.

"The whole dynamic is compounded by the fact that buyers have increasingly come to expect sharp price declines," he said.

“Mounting cost pressures will eventually slow ongoing ASP declines, especially if PC component prices firm," Shiffler said. "However, as recent earnings announcements illustrate, vendors are facing strong competitive pressures. These pressures are only likely to intensify if unit growth slows. Vendors may have little choice other than to cut prices or offer more lower-cost, de-featured machines."