Flash Is the Future For Laptop Storage: Report

Based on a survey of nearly 400 mobile computer users, the In-Stat researchers conclude that the potential benefits of SSDs, coupled with declining costs of Flash memory, could leave the laptop storage market ripe for change. In fact, they predict, by 2013 half of all mobile computers will have SSDs.

Flash-based SSDs as hard disk drive replacements are just starting to emerge in laptops from major manufacturers. In March, for example, Samsung Electronics unveiled a notebook with a 32-GB NAND Flash-based SSD instead of a hard disk drive. The $3,700, 12.1-inch screen notebook PC is available for the Korean market only.

While Flash memory is too costly today to be a viable, mass-market alternative to hard disk drives for laptops, should its prices continue to decline users may be willing to pay a little more for its benefits, say industry insiders.

"There are quite a few benefits it would bring to our customers, such as more durability. If there are no moving parts, you take one of two main things that fails on a typical laptop--the screen and the hard drive--and you take it out of play," says John Reilly, senior director of product management for PC Connection, a Merrimack, N.H.-based direct marketer of hardware, software, networking devices and peripherals. "You could also reduce power consumption because of heat and get faster read-write opportunities. The other benefit is security for certain verticals like finance or health care, where they don't want information on the local drive."

However, Reilly says he doesn't expect hard disk drive makers "to go out without a fight on pricing." And top hard disk drive maker Seagate Technology, naturally, disagrees with In-Stat's findings.

"I've been in the disk drive business for about 24 years, and I've been hearing that rotating memory is going to be replaced for something else the whole time," says Marc Noblitt, senior interface market development manager for Seagate, in Scotts Valley, Calif. "The bottom line is that rotating memory delivers too much value add to ever get completely replaced, even at the 50 percent level. With Flash, the cost-per-gigabyte is not there, and we don't see it getting there for quite some time."

While the fate of the hard disk drive won't be known for years, closer on the horizon are so-called hybrid hard disk drives, which combine Flash memory and rotating magnetic storage. Such machines--which Seagate's Noblitt calls "a good marriage," promise to offer faster boot times and use less battery power, while keeping costs down.

Samsung has also developed a laptop prototype using a hybrid hard disk drive, which it is planning to launch at the same time as Microsoft's Vista operating system, which will include support for such hybrid drives.