PC Sales Stabilizing, Mac Leading The Charge: Report

Commercial Mac shipments were up 25 percent in May over those of April, compared to an overall increase in the commercial PC market of 1 percent month over month, according to Kathryn Huberty, an analyst with Morgan Stanley.

Huberty wrote in her Systems and PC Hardware report on Wednesday that her organization is raising its second quarter 2009 PC shipment forecast to reflect a 1 percent growth in shipments for the quarter over those of the first quarter, compared to the normal seasonality of flat or negative growth for the second quarter.

For all of 2009, Morgan Stanley is raising its total PC shipment forecast by 5 percent over previous forecasts. As a result, the analyst firm is now expecting PC shipments to fall 6 percent compared to last year, as opposed to earlier forecasts of an 11 percent drop.

Leading the way are shipments of Apple Macintosh PCs, which thanks to a broad refresh of the Macbook line early this month should provide a catalyst for growth in the third and fourth quarters.

Huberty wrote that, based on weekly shipment data from analyst firm NPD Group, commercial Mac shipments in May were up 25 percent over April, while shipments from the entire industry as a whole rose only 1 percent during that same period. She noted, however, that those figures were compiled before the Macbook refresh.

As a result, Huberty wrote that she expects Apple to sell about 2.5 million Macs in the second quarter, up 4 percent from the original forecast.

She also wrote that Dell's second quarter PC shipments are expected to grow about 3 percent quarter over those of the first quarter, while Hewlett-Packard's PC shipments are expected rise about 1 percent over the same period.