8 Signs IT Is Coming Out Of Recession

Intel CEO Paul Otellini said this week that the PC industry is rebounding and could actually achieve year-over-year growth in 2009. Despite some critics who say it's more likely the PC space will be flat in 2009, they don't call Intel a "bellwether" of the IT industry for nothing.

Linux disty Red Hat not only reported double-digit growth in revenue for its most recent quarter, it reported that deferred revenue has increased (a sign that its installed base is spending longer-term again) and that the length of its subscriptions has increased. Businesses don't enter into longer deals for technology if they're not looking toward growth.

The Armonk, N.Y.-based computer giant reported in July that it was already seeing a return to strong growth -- 18 percent -- and it continued to forecast strong results. Recessions at times can have false rebounds, but earlier this month IBM said it was reiterating its bullish view.

Even though it's forecasting a 2 percent year-over-year decline in the PC business worldwide, Gartner Group says its outlook is improving. Earlier this year, it forecast a 6 percent drop. "The worst may be over for the PC industry," it proclaimed this week.

The Nasdaq stock market has traditionally been where most of the strategic tech stocks have been parked throughout the years, and it remains so today. As with other stock markets, it was hammered last year during the global financial meltdown but it's now returned to just about break-even. While a variety of factors impact stock market success, it's hard to believe big institutional investors would put their money back into tech stocks if they didn't think it would be safe for a while.

Consumer giant Best Buy has raised its expectations for sales for the rest of this year and 2010, with executives saying they believe consumers have found a steady stride with discretionary spending. They also believe the bar has been raised in terms of the value of technology and products it sells via retail. These factors are good signs for the technology ecosystem at large, and a leading indicator that commercial IT may see light at the end of the tunnel.

For two straight months, the Semiconductor Industry Association has reported a positive "book-to-bill" ratio -- meaning that chipmakers received more incoming orders for products than they shipped out products that they had sold.

The Institute for Supply Management has picked up a very important trend for IT: a return to growth for manufacturing. Printing and related products and computer equipment were two sectors listed as "contributors" to manufacturing growth in August.